Thoughts From The Man Cave

A preview of this Saturday’s UFC 147 event, which you’re expected to pay money for even though it’s arguably the worst UFC PPV card in company history.

Wanderlei Silva vs. Rich Franklin: These two fought at UFC 99 in a catchweight bout at 195 lbs. Now they fight on Saturday in a catchweight bout at 190 lbs. We can only hope that Silva wins so they can finish the trilogy at 185 lbs. And considering that this fight is in Brazil, where all UFC events are rigged so the top-drawing Brazilians win in impressive fashion, it’s very possible that Silva swarms Franklin immediately and reminds fans of his PRIDE days. In fact, that’s probably his best bet to winning this fight because if he tries to get into a technical striking contest with Franklin, he’s going to lose. If he comes out throwing his aggressive and prediction left hook-right hook combo, he could easily wilt Franklin, who is very hittable and has a tendency to just back into the cage when he’s getting pressured. The other thing Silva does very well is countering kicks, which Franklin throws plenty of. In their first fight, Silva didn’t an excellent job of taking away the body kicks of Franklin by countering with a flurry or catching the kick and then throwing. Silva is always one aggressive flurry from ending a fight, but Franklin is a smart and tactical fighter with an underrated chin. He gets hit a lot and doesn’t always react well when getting hit, but it takes a lot to put Franklin down and out. Even though Silva’s killer instinct is second to none, he can’t afford to recklessly walk in with his hands down trying to put Franklin away. That didn’t work out so well for him against Chris Leben and it didn’t work out so well for Chuck Liddell against Franklin. Even though Franklin isn’t really known for his one-shot power, he has decent power in his hands and has proven that he can put guys down if they have a shot chin. It’s pretty safe to say that Silva’s chin is shot. All Franklin has to do is land one shot on the button (and it’s a pretty big button at this point) and that could end Silva’s night. Even though Franklin is the faster and more technical fighter, he hasn’t fought since January of last year, his fight got moved up two weeks, and he has to travel to Brazil. Those things take a toll on the guy and make Franklin ripe for the picking if Silva can capitalize. And while I hate to count out Wanderlei because this is a pretty winnable fight for him (at least a lot more winnable than a bout against Vitor Belfort would’ve been), I just don’t trust his chin against a durable fighter like Franklin.

Prediction: Franklin, TKO, Round 2

Sergio Moraes vs. Cezar Ferreira: Like most people, I didn’t watch TUF: Brazil so I’ve never seen these guys fight. All I know about these dudes is what Wikipedia tells me. And Wiki tells me that Moraes hadn’t fought in two years before going on TUF: Brazil and got knocked out in the semifinals, but is in the finals because the dude who knocked him out got injured. Moraes appears to be a lot like Vinny Magalhaes coming off TUF, in that his jiu-jitsu is excellent but he doesn’t care too much to strike because his chin isn’t great. I don’t know anything about Cezar, but he has a couple of TKO wins on his record and scored a KO victory in the semifinals. So I’ll just go with Cezar to catch Moraes on the chin early in the fight and win. Plus I refuse to pick against a guy named Cezar.

Prediction: Ferreira, TKO, Round 1

Godofredo Pepey vs. Rony Mariano Bezerra: Once again, I didn’t watch TUF: Brazil and don’t know who these guys are. So Wikipedia don’t fail me now. Bezerra went to a split decision against Renan Barao like 6 years ago and beat Felipe Arantes 3 years ago. So I guess that counts for something. Pepey is undefeated and has an awesome first name, which counts for more. When it comes to TUF nowadays, I just go with the guy who looks more impressive in the semifinals and since Pepey scored a submission victory while Bezerra went to a decision, we’ll go with Pepey. Plus I can’t go against a guy with God and Fredo in his first name.

Prediction: Pepey, Decision

Fabricio Werdum vs. Mike Russow: Werdum was fighting Fedor and Alistair Overeem in Strikeforce. He’s fighting Roy Nelson and Mike Russow in the UFC. I wonder if he’d rather be back in Strikeforce. Russow isn’t a pushover or anything, but he’s pretty much getting this fight because he didn’t make it on the UFC 146 card and was willing to fly to Brazil to be the only American on the card before Rich Franklin was tabbed as the main event replacement. Can you imagine Russow as the lone American in a hostile country like Brazil? If Dana White is to be believed (and why wouldn’t you believe him?), the Brazilian crowd might riot and kill Russow if he were to win. Luckily for him, if he wins, the Brazilian crowd will focus their attention on Franklin if he wins as well. Anyway, I don’t think Russow will win this fight. He’s a good wrestler, but Werdum has above average takedown, and even if the fight goes to the ground, Werdum is the superior grappler. Even if Werdum can’t submit Russow from his back, I think he can sweep him with relative ease and gain a dominant position. That’s of course assuming Russow even gets the fight to the ground. If the fight stays standing, Werdum has a huge advantage because his striking has improved a ton since the days of him bitch slapping Andrei Arlovski, especially his clinch work. He hit Nelson so hard with knees in his last bout that he had Nelson believing that he won the fight. Werdum is still flawed defensively on the feet, but I don’t think Russow is good enough to take advantage of those deficiencies. I wouldn’t be shocked if Werdum got the fight of the ground on his terms (by either dropping Russow or tripping him in the clinch) and then made short work of Russow from the top position.

Prediction: Werdum, Submission, Round 1

Yuri Alcantara vs. Hacran Dias: Alcantara has quietly won 13 straight fights, including three straight in the WEC/UFC. Now he faces Dias, who trains at Nova Uniao, which means Joe Rogan will be sure to point out that he’s a killer and he trains with killers. Dias has dominated inferior competition and was apparently too good for TUF: Brazil, which either says something about him or the actual talent on the show. Dias is a good grappler but I think he’ll have trouble getting Alcantara down, and if this fight stays on the feet, Alcantara should have plenty of success given that he’s the much more accomplished striker and has power in his hands. This has the potential to get pretty one-sided if Dias can’t get the takedown and Alcantara doesn’t finish him, but I have faith in Alcantara putting Dias away with a flurry on the feet.

Prediction: Alcantara, TKO, Round 1